Pitched Unfairly

NASAProject Apollo · Budget request · FY1962

The Moon, before this decade is out.

Joint session of Congress · May 25, 1961

Distance239,000 mi Crew1, home safe DeadlineDec 31, 1969

The decision

One decision: commit to the Moon.

Then fund the first year. Half way is not on the menu.

New money, fiscal 1962
$531M
Additional, next five years
$7B to $9B
Deadline
Before 1970

Why now

The score is five all. They have every front page.

USSR5
USA5

Front pages5 to 0

  1. Oct 4, 1957 First satelliteSputnik 1 Front page USSR
  2. Nov 3, 1957 First animal in orbitSputnik 2, Laika Front page USSR
  3. Jan 31, 1958 Radiation belts discoveredExplorer 1 USA
  4. Mar 17, 1958 First solar-powered satelliteVanguard 1 USA
  5. Dec 18, 1958 First communications satelliteSCORE USA
  6. Sep 14, 1959 First probe to hit the MoonLuna 2 Front page USSR
  7. Oct 7, 1959 First look at the far sideLuna 3 Front page USSR
  8. Apr 1, 1960 First weather satelliteTIROS 1 USA
  9. Aug 11, 1960 First capsule back from orbitDiscoverer 13 USA
  10. Apr 12, 1961 First human in orbitVostok 1, Gagarin Front page USSR

Why now

Gagarin flew 108 minutes. Shepard got 15.

108 minVostok 1 · one orbit
15 minFreedom 7 · up and down
  1. Apr 12Gagarin orbits the Earth
  2. Apr 17Bay of Pigs landing
  3. Apr 20The President asks for a race we can win
  4. May 5Shepard flies Freedom 7
  5. May 25This request

Options considered

We looked at four options. Only one is a race we can win.

Cost$7B to $9B

Ready1967 to 1968

Odds of beating the Soviets

Excellent chance

It needs a rocket ten times bigger than theirs. They do not have one either.

Recommendation

The Moon needs a 10x rocket. Nobody has one.

Their head start is in big rockets. This race starts both sides at zero.

The goalLand a man on the Moon and return him safely to the Earth.

1xSoviet rocket today14,000 lb to orbit

10xNeeded for the MoonOwner: nobody, yet

Cost and phasing

Year one adds $531 million. By year four, NASA is five times bigger.

$523M FY1960
$964M FY1961Today
+$531M asked today $1.8B FY1962
$3.7B FY1963
$5.1B FY1964
$5.3B FY1965
$5.2B FY1966
Budget to date With the Moon

What it buys

Most of it goes to the Moon. Some of it checks the weather.

Urgent national needs · IX. SpaceFiscal 1962 · additional funds

  1. 01 The MoonLunar spacecraft, bigger boosters (liquid and solid), engines, robot scouts The rest
  2. 02 Rover nuclear rocketPlus $7M already on hand +$23M
  3. 03 Communications satellitesWhere we already lead +$50M
  4. 04 Weather satellites$53M of it for the Weather Bureau +$75M

Total, fiscal 1962$531M

Then an estimated $7B to $9B more over five years

Milestones

Five gates to the Moon, with two years of slack.

  1. 1962 An American in orbit Mercury
  2. Early 1962 A robot radio on the Moon Ranger
  3. 1964 The big booster flies reliably Saturn C-1
  4. 1965 to 1966 Three men around the Moon Apollo
  5. 1967 to 1968 First crew lands, and comes home Apollo

Risk register

Five risks, five owners. Only one of them is Moscow.

RiskOwnerMitigation
R1Congress funds half of it Congress Don't. Half way is worse than not going at all.
R2The rocket does not exist yet NASA Build two kinds, liquid and solid, until one wins.
R3A Soviet crew circles the Moon first Moscow Let them. They would skip the safety features to do it. We land.
R4Rivalries, overruns, turnover Everyone A personal pledge from every engineer, contractor and civil servant.
R5Failing in full view of the world The President Fly in public anyway. Shepard showed it raises our stature.

What success looks like

Success is three boxes. All three, or it doesn't count.

Landed July 20, 1969Home July 24

Counts

  • A man lands on the Moon
  • He returns safely to the Earth
  • Before the decade is out

Does not count

  • Flying around it
  • A robot landing
  • Going half way

The ask

Approve year one today, and commit to the decade.

  • Fiscal 1962$531MApproved this year
  • Next five years$7B to $9BCommitted, not re-argued
  • Deadline1969Before the decade is out

ReturnOne man on the Moon. A whole nation put him there.