Pitched Unfairly

Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force

OperationOverlord

One objective. Five beaches.

Annual plan and OKRs · 1944

Top secret Bigot
To
Supreme Commander
From
Planning staff
Subject
The year, in one page
Read by
D-Day minus 30

Where we are

Last year's plan: three divisions. We need five.

Last year's outline plan was approved. Then the new commanders read it.

COSSAC outline plan · 1943

Approved
Quebec, August 1943
Supreme Commander
To be named Eisenhower
Seaborne assault
3 divisions 5, plus 3 airborne
Landing craft
Enough for 3 Find more
Target date
1 May 1944 June

D.D.E. / B.L.M. · 31 Dec

The one objective

The board wrote our objective in one sentence.

"You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with the other United Nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces."

Combined Chiefs of Staff · Directive to the Supreme Commander · 12 February 1944

This year A lodgement on the Continent. Everything after it is next year's plan.

Key results

Five key results, each with a date. Every one gets graded.

KRKey resultTargetActualGrade
01 Put five divisions ashore on five beaches D-Day D-Day156,115 men landedPending Hit
02 Link the beachheads into one front D-Day D+6Joined 12 JunePending Late
03 Take Caen D-Day D+45Cleared 21 JulyPending Missed
04 Take Cherbourg, our first deep-water port D+8 D+20Fell 26 JunePending Late
05 Line up on the Seine D+90 D+75First crossingPending Early

Bet one · Mulberry

We can't take a port on day one, so we are bringing two.

Harbours
2, each about the size of Dover
Built by
37,000 workers, told nothing
Phoenix caissons
2,000 to 6,000 tons each
Throughput target
12,000 tons a day, any weather
Mulberry B, Arromanches · plan view, not to scale

Bet two · Fortitude

The most dangerous army in England is one we made up.

What German intelligence sees

  • First US Army Group, General Patton, massing in Kent and Essex
  • Landing craft and tanks gathering in the south-east
  • Radio traffic of a whole army group, every day
  • Garbo's network of 27 agents confirms it all

What is real

  • The army group is notional; its headquarters is a story
  • The landing craft are wood and canvas. The tanks are dummies.
  • The radio traffic is simulated, on a schedule
  • Garbo is one Spaniard. All 27 agents are invented.
Pas-de-CalaisNormandy

Phases and timeline

Three phases, ninety days, and one date the weather owns.

  1. May 1943Washington agrees: cross the Channel within a year
  2. Aug 1943Quebec approves the outline plan
  3. Dec 1943Eisenhower named Supreme Commander
  4. Feb 1944Directive issued. Deception plan approved.
You are hereMay 1944
  1. 5 JunePhase 1Neptune: the assault, weather permitting
  2. D+8Phase 2Build-up: Cherbourg, our first port
  3. D+90Phase 3Advance: lined up on the Seine

Owners and resources

Every key result has one owner. The weather has a Group Captain.

EisenhowerSupreme Commander The go/no-go 1One decision
Montgomery21st Army Group, land KRs 1 to 5 ashore 8 divisions on day one
RamsayAllied naval forces The crossing 6,939 vessels
Leigh-MalloryAllied air forces The airborne lift 1,200 aircraft for the drop
StaggChief meteorologist The forecast 3 forecasting teams

Risks and contingencies

Every risk has a fallback. The cost in lives has none.

RiskOwnerContingency
Weather closes the window Stagg Postpone 24 hours. After that, the next tides are 18 to 20 June, with no moon.
Germany sees through Fortitude Ops (B) Keep Patton in England after D-Day, so Calais still looks next.
No port to land supplies Ramsay Two Mulberries. If one fails, land over the open beaches.
The secret leaks Eisenhower Bigot clearance. Troops learn the destination at sea.

The cost

749 killed when Exercise Tiger, a rehearsal, was attacked on 28 April.

4,414 Allied dead confirmed on D-Day itself, of at least 10,000 casualties.

What we are not doing

Five things we won't do. One we'll fake.

  1. Land at the Pas-de-Calais Shortest crossing, heaviest defences. but we'll fake this one
  2. Storm a defended port on day one Dieppe, August 1942.
  3. Land in Brittany or the Cotentin alone A peninsula can be sealed off at its neck.
  4. Go on 1 May with three divisions Five, in June, with the landing craft to carry them.
  5. Wait for perfect weather It is not on the calendar.

The go/no-go

Go/no-go is a weather report. Tuesday is go.

Their forecast Two weeks of storms. Their commanders leave for war games in Rennes.

Southwick House · Briefed Sun 4 June, early morning

Wind and seaNeed: Light winds, low seas Strong winds, heavy seas
CloudNeed: Base no lower than 2,500 ft Low, heavy cloud
Moon and tideNeed: Moonlight, rising tide at dawn In the window

No-go

Southwick House · Briefed Sun 4 June, night. Confirmed Mon 04:30.

Wind and seaNeed: Light winds, low seas Force 3 to 4, force 5 in places
CloudNeed: Base no lower than 2,500 ft Under half cover, base 2,000 to 3,000 ft
Moon and tideNeed: Moonlight, rising tide at dawn In the window

GoMarginal

12345678910111213141516171819202122

Tide windowStorm, 19 to 22 June

The decision

One owner if it fails. He wrote it down.

Decision
Go
Given
Mon 5 June, 04:30
D-Day
Tue 6 June 1944

July 5June, actually

Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops.

. . .

If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone.

Dwight D. Eisenhower · In case of failure · Never sent